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Lame Duck: The Possibilities


October 19th, 2010

Director of Government Relations :: Larry Hart

Congress had planned to stay in session until October 8. First the House and then the Senate decided to abandon ship ten days early and head home to try and save their endangered seats. If the Republicans win the House and make substantial gains in the Senate, there will be tremendous pressure to pass legislation that will have little chance when the new Congress convenes in January. The possibilities are many and varied:

Taxes: Incredibly, the Democrats did not even introduce a bill to extend any of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, no less vote on one. As it stands now, almost every American taxpayer stands to get a substantial tax increase on January 1, when all of the tax cuts expire. Despite their majorities, the Democrats became badly split on whether to follow the Obama /Pelosi line and allow taxes to increase on upper income taxpayers or just extend all the cuts when it became clear that the most successful small businesses that create a great many jobs would be hardest hit. The ideologues in the Obama Administration and the House are so determined to punish people who are successful that this promises to be a fierce battle in December.

Energy: After the collapse of cap and trade in the Senate, there was tremendous pressure to enact other forms of global warming regulations, such as a renewable energy standard, all of which would have the effect of raising utility bills over a period of time. Majority Leader Harry Reid made it clear he didn’t want to deal with it before the election and then the bottom fell out when the top Republican on the Senate Energy Committee, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who has often supported this legislation, lost the Republican Primary and she virtually abandoned her office to campaign full time as a write-in candidate. Although in an interview with Rolling Stone Magazine, Obama said he is looking to 2011 to make another push to get these bills passed, the lame duck is where they will have the votes and Murkowski will be back regardless of the election outcome.

Labor: The unions, who have spent many millions to sustain the current Democrat majorities in Congress, were bitterly disappointed when there was no big push to pass card check as the Democrats had promised. Of course, getting control of the Labor Department has allowed them to start rolling back reforms enacted under Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, but, knowing they will have a more hostile Congress in 2011, they will still be pressing for variations on card check that will make it easier for them to get quick votes on unionization without having to deal with silly issues like a secret ballot.

START Treaty: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has already approved the U.S./Russian treaty. It needs 67 votes to be ratified and the only chance to get that many will be in the lame duck session. Despite many studies by the Heritage Foundation and others that say the Russians may have a veto over future U.S. defense decisions under its provisions, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, Richard Lugar, is one of its ardent backers, so this is one of the most likely agenda items in the lame duck.

Judicial nominations: Some of the Obama nominations have been so controversial there has not even been an attempt to get a confirmation vote. Again, if the Senate numbers change substantially, there will be an all out attempt to get confirmations, knowing it will be nearly impossible in 2011. Of course, this may be short-circuited by recess appointments between now and November, but then they would be out of a job come December 2011.

If Republicans win Senate seats in Delaware, Illinois and West Virginia, the winners may be seated early, as these are special elections to fill unexpired terms. However, the winners would have to be certified before November 15 for that to happen. Regardless, the Senate Republicans will have the 41 votes to stop all this if they hold together and it will be up to their conservative constituents to make sure they do.

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