Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Today In Washington
THE SENATE: Convened at 9:30 and is now rejecting two versions of a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution — a foregone conclusion ever since the votes were promised as part of the summer debt limit deal. Reid and McConnell are now working behind the scenes (while overtly furious at each other) on the next step in the year-ending tax extenders debate.
A party-line vote was expected to rebuff the Republican proposal, which was to cap spending at 18 percent of gross domestic product, require a two-thirds majority to increase taxes and dictate that spending not exceed revenue in each fiscal year unless supermajorities in Congress voted for deficits during war or other emergencies. The vote a few minutes ago was 21-79 against the Democratic alternative, which had no spending caps or special rules for tax bills (except that cuts for millionaires could only be allowed during times of surplus) and would shield the Social Security trust fund from being tapped to balance the books.
THE HOUSE: Convened at 10 and is expected to be dismissed before 5, after adopting the $662 billion defense authorization conference agreement and voting on as many as 10 bills under the suspension of the rules process.
THE WHITE HOUSE: Obama is arriving for a 90-minute visit to Fort Bragg, his first as president. At noon he and the first lady will deliver speeches thanking the troops and their families for their sacrifices during the Iraq War and promising that the administration remains committed to providing veterans robust benefits and help securing jobs. (The North Carolina fort — home to the Special Operations command, the 18th Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne, among others — says more than 200 soldiers who died in Iraq left from there.)
Obama is due back in the Oval Office by 2, and at 5 he’s headed a few blocks away to the St. Regis Hotel for another re-election fundraiser.
ANOTHER STANDOFF: Shutdown brinkmanship is back. There’s even a decent shot that the two sides will dig in long enough that the current stopgap spending law will be permitted to expire 60 hours from now, which would mean a mad weekend scramble to get something to replace it before the bulk of the federal government reopens for business next Monday — either a very, very short CR or the comprehensive $1 trillion appropriations package that’s essentially written up and ready to go.
The standoff intensified in the Senate this morning, when Reid proposed holding the next symbolic test vote tonight — the one in which the Democratic majority will formally spurn the payroll tax, jobless benefit, “doc fix” and AMT “patch” package pushed through the Republican House yesterday, because it also would speed along construction of the Keystone oil pipeline. McConnell objected, insisting that he’d use all his parliamentary powers to make sure the appropriations “megabus” is done first.
Republicans clearly see a way to seize back the year-end momentum on this front from Obama and the Senate Democrats, who have been holding the better hand for weeks on the question of continuing a tax cut for 160 million people. But now, the Democrats think their opponents have badly overplayed that hand by holding up final action on the spending bill until the GOP relents (or at least comes to the final bargaining table) on the tax package. And that, the Republicans say, makes Democrats vulnerable to the same criticism they have been using against the GOP all year: They’re willing to hold the government hostage, and cause genuine problems for millions of people, until they get what they want.
The longer the megabus package is allowed to sit on the shelf, the more it risks being picked apart around the edges — and it could well fall apart altogether if the votes aren’t called soon. Officially, the text is not out because no Senate Democrats have been allowed to sign on the dotted line at the bottom, but everyone knows it’s a done deal (despite what Reid insists) and more and more people are aware of the thousands of line-item details every hour. If the old legislative adage is that a compromise, like an unrefrigerated fish, starts to rot after three days, then this is Day Two.
AGAINST THE GRAIN: The 10 House Democrats who voted for the extenders bill last night bill were Barrow, Boren, Boswell, Braley, Cardoza, Donnelly, Loebsack, Matheson, Ross and Walz. The 14 Republicans who voted “no” were Amash, Barton, Brooks, Campbell, Flake, Fortenberry, Garrett, Tim Johnson, Lummis, McClintock, McKinley, Neugebauer, Wolf and Woodall.
SAVE THE DATE: Obama will deliver his next State of the Union address the evening of Tuesday, Jan. 24 — one day after the Senate returns from the coming break, and one week after the House reconvenes to start the second session of the 112th Congress.
DOWN IN THE POLL: Only 22 percent say the nation is headed in the right direction, according to the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll out today, while 42 percent say the performance of the current Congress is “one of the worst” ever —the highest number ever recorded on a question that’s been asked since 1990. Obama’s job-approval rating is at 46 percent, 2 points better than a month ago.
The poll’s numbers in the GOP presidential race, meanwhile, show Newt Gingrich leading Mitt Romney by 17 points among Republican voters nationwide — and by 23 points if all the other candidates are excluded. The reason seems clear: Only 29 percent view Romney as “conservative,” while 59 percent give Gingrich that label. But when the surveyors asked about general election matchups, they found Obama defeating the former Speaker by 11 points among all registered voters but in a statistical tie with the former Massachusetts governor. That apparent electability gap is what has so many Republican congressional strategists worried: They fret that Gingrich at the top of the could do the party serious damage in close races for the House and Senate, particularly in the Northeast.
RUNNER-UP: House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan was named “the most influential American politician” of 2011 and the third runner-up for Time magazine’s “Person of the Year” recognition today. (Kate Middleton was fourth runner-up.) “Through a combination of hard work, good timing and possibly suicidal guts, the Wisconsin Republican managed to harness his party to a dramatic plan for dealing with America’s rapidly rising public debt,” the magazine said. “He brought an ugly issue out of the foggy realm of think tanks and blue-ribbon panels and dropped it into the middle of the national debate in time to define the next presidential election.”
Finishing higher up in the editor’s balloting were Chinese dissident artist Ai Weiwei; William McRaven, the admiral who ran the SEAL operation that killed Osama bin Laden; and the face on the cover: “The Protester,” honoring the people from Tahrir Square to Zuccotti Park “for capturing and highlighting a global sense of restless promise, for upending governments and conventional wisdom, for combining the oldest of techniques with the newest of technologies to shine a light on human dignity and, finally, for steering the planet on a more democratic though sometimes more dangerous path.”
TRAIL TIPS:
(1) Steny Hoyer may not ever be Speaker, his unambiguous ambition of the past 30 years, but the minority whip insists he wants to stick around for at least one more term (which would be his 16th) representing southern Maryland. He turns 73 next June, and speculation that he would retire surged yesterday for two reasons: His longtime top aide, Terry Lierman, announced he was leaving the Hill to start a health care venture capital firm. (The new chief of staff will be Alexis Covey-Brandt, who now runs Hoyer’s floor operation and has been with Hoyer for eight years.) And state House GOP leader Anthony O’Donnell revealed he was ready to give up his legislative seat after 18 years to run for Hoyer’s seat, even though the state’s redistricting may make the 5th District no more inclined to go Republican. Hoyer told reporters he is firmly committed to seeking re-election.
(2) The 18 new congressional districts for Pennsylvania were unveiled last night by the Republicans who run Harrisburg, and it’s no surprise that the mapmakers went to great lengths to shore up the prospects for GOP congressmen in politically competitive territory. (Also no surprise, the legislators took care of the one House seat the state lost in reapportionment mainly by combining the exurban Pittsburgh districts currently held by Democrats Jason Altmire and Mark Critz, but in a way that gives each a fair shot at beating the other in a primary — and then gives GOP state Rep. Jim Christiana a solid shot in the fall.) On the other side of the state, the map was significantly reconfigured to make political life more comfortable for Patrick Meehan, Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent, Tom Marino and — most of all — freshman Lou Barletta, who saw his territory changed from mostly Democratic to GOP-leaning. The biggest Democratic beneficiary is Tim Holden, whose seat was made safer by dispersing much of his GOP precinct to nearby Republican incumbents. Under the new map, Democrats will probably view the seats held by Republicans Mike Fitzpatrick and Mike Kelly as their most plausible pickup opportunities.
— David Hawkings, editor
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